U.S. Open Men’s Preview: A Fish & Chips Final. Judy Murray Style.

The impact of defending champion Juan Martin Del Potro being unable to defend his title in New York is huge, not just for the U.S. Open itself and his many fans, but probably more so for the two men del Potro defeated along the way to his first Grand Slam title, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. In a similar plotline to the one happening on the women’s side, the absence of del Porto, who would have been a clear favorite to repeat as champion, now opens up the men’s draw to allow a few contenders to take care of some unfinished business. Whether it’s winning in New York for the first time, winning a Grand Slam for the first time, or proving you’ve still got it after hearing you were past it, the guys know that this is one opportunity they must seize now. But if you’re expecting another installment in the friendliest rivalry in all of sports, don’t be surprised if a former “Deal or No Deal” briefcase model and a grinning Scottish mum end up sitting near each other in the friends box on the final Sunday.

For top seed Nadal, his quest to win his first U.S. Open title should start off well enough in the early rounds. He could face fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez or perhaps Ivan Ljubicic who beat him in Indian Wells, but I really don’t see Nadal being troubled by either. What he may have trouble with is who he takes on in the quarterfinals, either another Spaniard in David Ferrer whose speedy legs help him chase down any ball especially on hard courts, David Nalbandian, one of the hottest players this summer who found himself seeded at No. 31, or the talented yet still erratic Ernests Gulbis who could be a sleeper pick for the title. Fernando Verdasco is in this mix too, but he hasn’t done much this summer to suggest he will even make it past the third round. Somehow I see Nadal getting past them all, but how much it costs his body before the semifinals will continue to be the biggest question mark for Nadal if he wants to conquer New York.

Andy Murray comes in, once again, with many expecting him to finally win his maiden Slam in New York. But after being dumped out early by Marin Cilic last year, many others have lost confidence that Murray can actually put his game together to win on the biggest stage. Murray himself should feel confident knowing that there’s no one in the early rounds who could trouble him. He could face a still struggling Stanislas Wawrinka and then perhaps Sam Querrey who beat him in L.A. Despite that big win, Querrey has done nothing all summer and it wouldn’t surprise me if he himself lost early. Murray could face in the quarterfinals Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych who’s looked a bit flat since that run on the grass. He could find a second gear and test Murray, but my feeling is Murray could play at 60% and still book a spot in the semis.

Novak Djokovic’s side of the draw should be renamed the “American” section as it features six U.S. men making the odds very good one of them will make it to the semis. Djokovic, who reached the semis last year, has looked like he would collapse on court all summer and if the hot weather that’s predicted for the first few days in New York comes to pass, he could go out first round. Even if Djokovic makes it through, there are too many other players with better games right now that should prevail. Certainly if Andy Roddick were showing up with the same form he displayed in Miami he would be the obvious favorite. But his lingering issues with mono make me think he could lose early himself. That leaves the door open for either Marcos Baghdatis, who’s played a lot this summer or veteran Mardy Fish who’s having the summer of his life to find himself the only American with a legit shot at winning New York. If Fish’s game can hold up in best three of five sets will be the main test for him. Finally, and though I don’t expect him to do well, James Blake is also in this section. Could this be the last time we see Blake at Flushing Meadows?

For Roger Federer, it’s good to be king. He comes into New York with early round matchups that should allow him to test out his new attacking style that he’s been working on with Paul Annacone. Juan Carlos Ferrero might force Federer to chase down a few more balls on the baseline, but the real test could be when Federer faces once against Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals. Or will they? Soderling, whose hard-hitting game seems suited for the hard courts has looked out of sorts this summer. Instead watch out for young Thiemo de Bakker to have a breakthrough event. Whoever Federer faces, he will plenty of time to fine tune his game before the semifinals. But expect at least one match where Federer seems to lose his way before finding it again to the delight of the New York crowd.

Semifinals: Murray/Nadal and Fish/Federer

Murray proved in Toronto that he can play aggressive and serve as big as anyone on tour. If he can use that new dimension, for five sets if need be, to wear Nadal down once again will be his test. In the other semifinal, whomever the partisan New York crowd roots for could be the difference between Federer, who’s becoming something of a sentimental favorite now that people sense he’s in the second stage of his career versus Fish who would be the first American semifinalist since Roddick got to the finals in 2006. Murray expressed in Toronto that he would love to play Federer in New York, not just because he fancies his chances, but because he knows a win over Federer in the finals would shut everyone up who said Murray could never beat Federer when it really mattered. He might get that chance, or perhaps Fish, a surprise finalist that would have the crowd firmly against the Scot. But no matter who he plays, as long as Murray knows his mom’s got his back, then he’ll prevail no matter who 20,000+ screaming New Yorkers are rooting for on the final Sunday.

No related posts.