A year ago in Paris, the expectation was that Dinara Safina, who at that time was No. 1, would finally win her first Grand Slam title. But instead, the winner ended up being a mild surprise when Svetlana Kuznetsova beat her fellow Russian in the finals capping off an impressive event.
Now with Safina coming back from a long injury lay off and Kuznetsova failing to find any form, all eyes turn to someone who wasn’t even playing last year as the expected champion. But with Justine Henin’s own form in doubt and the rise of some unlikely favorites, to engrave Henin’s name on the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen now would be a tad premature.
As usual with every women’s Slam draw, some parts are packed with top players and some are so wide open Martina Hingis could probably run on court and win a few rounds. But this being the French, anything could and probably will happen. So I’ve named each section in terms of what to expect.
Top heavy with a capital “T”: If you want to predict who will win the French, look no further than this section which has three of the favorites jammed in together. Henin, seeded 22nd, could face Maria Sharapova early on and then possibly Sam Stosur in the fourth round. When the Australian got to the semis last year and barely lost to Kuznetsova, some thought it was a fluke to see her all-court game do so well on the slow clay. But Stosur has proved everybody wrong by not only breaking into the top 10 this year but continuing her fine form by winning the Charleston event. Although she has the words “Composure” and “Attitude” written on her wristbands, if she can exhibit both against Henin, then this year could be the real breakthrough for Stosur.
Meanwhile both Henin and Stosur know that whoever survives their showdown could face No. 1 seed Serena Williams in the quarterfinals. That is if Serena gets there. Serena’s shown her usual patchy form coming into Paris, but if she can get through her opening rounds, including the always tough Shahar Peer, Serena could have enough momentum to prevail over Stosur or Henin. But, in the end, I still don’t think Serena’s game, which gets muted on the clay, or her will to win will be enough to carry her into the final Saturday.
JJ’s Chance: Although the talented Serb has gotten more press lately for being involved in some post-match drama, it’s the resurgence of her game that should be the real story. After winning Indian Wells, Jankovic has found a new gear that saw her reach the finals of Rome after she took out both Williams sisters. This year should be the best chance ever for Jankovic to win her maiden Slam after having reached the semis twice now.
If Jankovic is on her game, I can’t see the likes of Dinara Safina, Agnieszka Radwanska or even a somewhat resurgent Ana Ivanovic threatening her. Sure there’s bound to be a few drama moments here and there, but what else would you expect from the uber-diva herself?
The Great Unknown: Go ahead. I dare you to pick a favorite in the third section which has defending champion Kuznetsova potentially meeting No. 3 seed Caroline Wozniacki in the quarterfinals. If both of them somehow get there, it will either be due to some fine play from both or a complete breakdown by the other players in their draw. Flavia Pennetta and fellow Italian Francesca Schiavone have landed here, and since they both like the dirt, either one could make a run. Add in Maria Kirilenko, Na Li, and Lucie Safarova and you’ve got the making of a real fight for the semifinals.
Venus Rising: For those who don’t follow the WTA tour week by week, Williams’s rise back to No. 2 in the world may be a surprise. What’s more of a surprise is that she goes into Paris more of a favorite than her little sister Serena. Although Williams should get through her early rounds, her biggest test could be in the fourth round when she could meet Nadia Petrova, who’s not scared of anybody or Aravane Rezai who took Venus out in the Madrid finals. If Venus somehow battles her way past either, she should be good in shape to reach the semifinals. Maria Jose Maria Sanchez, who won Rome, is also lurking in this section, but if Venus is on, then you have to like her chances to make it through.
Semifinals: Henin vs. Jankovic and V.Williams vs. TBD.
If Henin manages to break out of her section and face a likely Jankovic in the semifinals, things look good for the Belgian who’s 10-0 vs. the Serb. Once again the French Open will have a surprise semifinalist. But, as I said earlier, if Venus can somehow battle through her early rounds, then she should be able to face down who ever she meets. That would set up a possible Henin/Williams final, which although on clay, still tips in the favor of Williams whose 7-2 versus Henin lifetime. So who does the French crowd root for? The sentimental favorite Henin whose already won four times, or Williams going for her first and possibly last chance at the title? Hard to say but it would be a fitting end to an event that’s always known for its surprises, controversies and as the French say, “grand drame”.
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