Australian Open Men’s Draw – Roddick’s Best Chance?

If anyone tells you there is a clear favorite for this year’s Australian Open, they are lying. Plenty of favorites exist, but the emergence of new stars and the travails of a certain Spaniard have made this year’s Down Under event wide open.

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Section One:
Roger Federer should have an easy enough time in his early rounds, though many expect his first round match against Igor Andreev to be a tough one. He could meet Lleyton Hewitt in the third round, but even with Hewitt’s new hip and renewed game, I can’t see Federer losing to the Aussie. In the other half of this side, Fernando Verdasco could meet up with Nikolay Davydenko in the fourth round. The winner of that would meet Federer in the quarters.

Davydenko is now finding himself a true contender for his first Slam. But to win he’ll have to find a way past Verdasco and then Federer. “Kolya” admits that the best three out of five format doesn’t suit him. He might get close and even stretch Federer to five, but I think he’ll run out of gas and keep Federer’s semifinal streak in Slams alive.

Semifinalist: Federer
Players to watch here: Marcos Baghdatis, Ernests Gulbis.

Section Two:
Of all the top seeds, Novak Djokovic would on paper appear to have the “easiest” draw. I say this as his early round matchups don’t post any real threats. He could meet a revived Richard Gasquet but I can’t see the Frenchman giving “Nole” too stern a test.

Robin Soderling, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Tommy Haas are all at the other end of Djokovic’s draw. Any one of them could end up in the quarters, but they’d really have to play at another level than they have in awhile to make a breakthrough.

Semifinalist: Djokovic
First Round Match to Watch: Richard Gasquet vs. Mikhail Youzhny.

Section Three:
If Andy Roddick, a four-time semifinalist at the AO, is looking for a real chance to finally take the title, this might be it. He won’t have to face Federer as he landed on the other side of the draw. He could face a tough test from fellow American Sam Querrey in the third round and then Fernando Gonzalez in the fourth round. “Gonzo” can either delight or disappoint, but do you really see him catching fire as he did a few years ago?

Juan Martin Del Potro potentially waits for Roddick in the quarters. But questions mount about a possible wrist injury and how Delpo will deal with the intense Melbourne heat. Marin Cilic and Stanislas Wawrinka are also dangerous floaters on his side. To sum it up, if DelPo and Roddick meet, and it gets close, for some reason I like Roddick in this one.

Semifinalist: Roddick
Players to Watch: Ryan Sweeting and Bernard Tomic – two teenagers who could be the next stars of the future.

Section Four:
With his victory last year, Rafael Nadal became the new king of tennis. Since then he’s lost traction due to injury and falling confidence. Nadal could face hard-serving John Isner in the third round then the crafty Radek Stepanek in the fourth. Nadal should get through his early rounds, but it won’t be easy.

Andy Murray finds himself, unlike last year, somewhat off the radar. This should suit him better as he can focus on his game and not his potential superstar status. His early rounds should go easy and he lucked out by having injured Gael Monfils (who might not play at all) as a potential fourth rounder.

If Nadal and Murray meet in the quarters, it could be a five set grind fest. Nadal will have to come up with a new game plan if he wants to repeat as AO champion, but I don’t think he will, and that will be his undoing.

Semifinalist: Murray
First Round Match to Watch: Radek Stepanek vs. Ivo Karlovic.

Semifinals:Federer/Djokovic and Murray/Roddick.

Djokovic has raised his game recently and regained the fire that fueled his early success. Federer’s fire, or lack of therof, becomes more apparent. I would never count out Federer in a Grand Slam, but I think the changing of the guard starts here. As for Murray/Roddick, both players will be ready for a fight, but Murray will have to play more aggressive than ever if he wants to claim his first Slam. Roddick might have the edge here, but I see the “Falcon” rising for his second Australian Open Men’s Title.

Finals: Djokovic wins over Roddick.

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Tagged as: Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Robin Soderling, Roger Federer